Is the boom really over?

Here's how the math works.

Over the last few days websites like hexus have been reporting that mining is drying up, and that some kind of major graphics card sell off has begun.

I don’t know what it is their news starved journalists have been smoking. Yes returns may not be what they were 6 months ago, but they are still pretty darn good, and there is no major sell off occurring. A quick trip to ebay shows the cheapest currently available RX580 8GB is £335 shipped- which is still £100+ over the MSRP. Assuming this person didn’t pay inflated prices when he bought it, he’s selling it at a profit.  The bitcointalk forum still has almost nobody selling RX cards at all.

So is the boom over? We’ll lets look. The RX580 8GB on Amazon today is £230. If you paid inflated prices, then that was probably a mistake you knew you would have to pay for. So let’s assume you paid RRP. ETH prices are all over the place this week, but as I type, at 25MH that card will produce (before electric cost) £675/year. Nearly triple it’s cost. Assuming 12p/KW, you’re keeping £530 of that after paying your power cost.  That’s still well over double the cost of the card- and the card itself will have held at least 60% of it’s value at the end of that year.

The truth is, even though coin value is down, and difficulty is high, mining today is perfectly profitable and well worth doing. There is no big card sell off on ebay- quite the opposite. Maybe if values keep coming down there will be a sell off eventually- but gamers need cards, and 480/580 cards are current gaming technology. The prices wont crash much below RRP any time soon.

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